Banque de France TARGET2 balance

What it is. The balance of the Banque de France with the other central banks of the euro area, relative to the size of their combined balance sheet, that of the Eurosystem.

Why it matters. When savers, companies or investors move their money from France to a bank in another euro area country, the balance falls. A sharp drop signals capital flight: -6.0% in November 2008, -4.2% in January 2012, at the height of the euro crisis. We divide it by the Eurosystem balance sheet because ECB debt purchases, which have tripled that balance sheet since 2008, also deepen the balance without any panic: in billions, October 2025 (-240) looked worse than 2008 (-119); relative to the balance sheet (-3.9%), it is not.

How to read the chart. The line shows the balance at the end of each month, as a % of the Eurosystem balance sheet; the amount in billions appears on hover. The lower it goes, the more capital is leaving France. Coloured backgrounds show the risk thresholds: below -4%, only 2008-2009 and the euro crisis.

Who measures it, and when. The European Central Bank, which publishes the Banque de France balance at the end of each month and the Eurosystem balance sheet every week, since 2008; read directly from it every morning.